On Saturday October 18th, Bernard Hopkins will step into the ring against undefeated Kelly Pavlik, in front of a packed crowd at the Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City. There will also be a large audience watching with interest on HBO PPV. For Hopkins, it could complete a full circle. In October 1988, Hopkins started his career in Atlantic City with a loss against Clinton Mitchell. In October 2008, Kelly Pavlik will aim to finish Hopkins’ career in the very city it started.

For Pavlik, it is the chance to put a legend on his resume. At 26, Pavlik is seen to be in his prime. On Saturday night, he will step into the ring as a big favourite against the seemingly fading Hopkins. But how much of a favourite is he? In terms of activity, Pavlik very much has the advantage. In his last fight that went the distance (the second Jermain Taylor fight), Pavlik landed 267 out of 845 punches. Meanwhile in Hopkins’ last fight against Joe Calzaghe, he could only land 127 out of 468. So that means Pavlik landed over twice as many punches, and threw over twice as many punches. Activity is a clear Pavlik strong point. As is power. In his last fight against Gary Lockett, Pavlik showed his devastating power, knocking him out in three very one sided rounds. Hopkins however is now too inactive and old to be able to use his power to it’s full potential. Again, Pavlik has the advantage. He is younger, more active and more powerful. So where can Hopkins win the fight?

The answer is in the tactics. Bernard often focuses on dismantling his opponents strengths rather than focusing on his own strengths. He will be sure to try and slow the pace down by clinching and moving side to side, making it difficult for Kelly to land that devastating right hand. To overcome Bernard's craftiness Kelly will have to be mentally strong, as show the heart and determination we've seen for most of his career. Bernard has specifically said on numerous occasions in the build up that he is focusing on stopping Pavlik’s right hand landing. And it’s very possible, given Bernard’s excellent defense and track record. And Bernard still has decent speed, at least for most of the fight, and that could be enough to neutralize Pavlik’s right hand. Also, Hopkins has the edge in experience, and knows every trick in the book to force a mistake. Frustration could also turn out to be a factor. Because he doesn’t have as much big fight experience, Pavlik could become frustrated enough after six rounds to start making mistakes. After all, he’s never come up against somebody as crafty as Bernard Hopkins. And if Pavlik starts making mistakes, we could see Hopkins landing some big right hand counters of his own. In which case, Pavlik will need his chin to stand up.

This fight is intriguing in many ways. Pavlik is younger. Hopkins is more experienced. Pavlik is better offensively. Hopkins is better defensively. The key to the fight in my opinion will be whether Hopkins can slow Pavlik's workrate. I think if he does, he will win. If he doesn't, he will lose. It is set up perfectly for October 18th. A legend will try to turn back the clock, and a great fighter tries to become a legend. Hopefully the fight will live up to the hype.