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I'm going with the cagey Filipino vet Penalosa over their talented, but very green Mares. I thought Penalosa gave Ponce De Leon a very tough fight that was much closer than the scorecards indicated. He loss more because of my Ponce's sheer activity than anything else, but he was landing the better punches for the most part, if I remember correctly. He also looked very impressive in stopping the tough Jhonny Gonzales last year with a picture perfect liver shot. Mares has been brought along well by Golden Boy, but I'm not sure he's ready for a fight like this judging from the competition level he has been in with. I think he will outbox the champ in the early going, but as with the Gonzales fight, one punch could very well turn the tide.
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Gerry Penalosa vs. Abner Mares-12/6/08 HBO
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