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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
I didn't put up my Tarver-Dawson analysis and prediction where I had Chad winning comfortably, though not as comfortable it ended up being. With Antonio having the chance of knocking him down, but not out and Dawson coming back stronger. I'm pissed because I had him winning, but I won't add it to my record because it wasn't posted.


Speed - Pavlik<Hopkins
Hopkins is pretty fast and not just for an old man, when he does throw, it's with max effort. Hopkins has mastered counter punching, he throws these sneaky quick counters, he draws fighters into, which makes him seem even faster. Pavlik is not fast, he isn't slow either, but sometimes it looks like he has to remind himself to be fast, when he gets lazy.

Power - Pavlik>Hopkins
At 170, Kelly's power is still unknown, but with a 6'2 frame and middleweight his starting weight, there shouldn't be much of a concern. P4P hitters carry their power up a couple of weight classes when they have solid skill and technique. Hopkins' knockouts have mostly come on accumulation, even at 160. Bernard has been the bigger puncher in his last 2 fights, not in this one.

Chin - Pavlik<Hopkins
Ex rarely gets hit clean, especially these days, where he concentrates on defense first, second, and offense a distant third. It's been double digit years since he's even been knocked down, in a fight fought at a high altitude and still demonstrated exceptional recuperation skills. Pavlik has a very sturdy chin, that gets tested often, against most fighters he'd have the advantage, not here.

Stamina - Pavlik>Hopkins
The Ghost puts up an outstanding workrate, averaging 70 punches per round. Not pitty pat punches or slaps, it's a hard consistent jab, one of the best right hands in boxing, left hooks, and other power punches. At 43, Bernard wouldn't have the advantage over any active elite fighter around his weight class, against Pavlik there is a huge disparity.

Experience - Pavlik<Hopkins
Though Pavlik is no slouch in this department being The Middleweight Champ, defenses of that title, and 34 fights. The Executioner has seen it all, with or without a title, unifications, for the undisputed, southpaw to orthodox, slick to straight forward, raw to refined, being the underdog, etc. No active fighter has the advantage over Hopkins in this category.

The breakdown: Pavlik is still improving from fight to fight and I expect pressure, jabbing, and a consistent workrate from him. Bernard is at a point that he will bring no surprises. He is there to clinch and hit and vice versa, give a ton of movement, feint and counter punch. That is a hard puzzle to solve, but not when you can avoid the clinches and have the chin and determination (some would say stupidity and/or stubbornness) to ignore feints and other traps set, even when he's getting hit. Kelly will get the late round stoppage, too much workrate, power, chin, heart and overall determination for this version of Bernard Hopkins.

Analysis record: 4-1
 

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Discussion Starter · #3 ·
Nice break down. I'm leaning towards Pavlik by late stoppage
Thanks, I've been saying stoppage for a while now, but the Hopkins stans say I'm crazy. They don't understand that Hopkins isn't going to be able to fight 12 rounds all of a sudden and Pavlik is the best one to exploit that. Bernard might foul his way out the fight though, I forgot putting that in.
 
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If Pavlik goes to the body early and has good success I can see him stopping Hopkins late. As of now I'm going with a Pavlik decision. Hopkins has had a great career but if he pulled this off it would be his best win of them all.
 

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If Pavlik goes to the body early and has good success I can see him stopping Hopkins late. As of now I'm going with a Pavlik decision. Hopkins has had a great career but if he pulled this off it would be his best win of them all.
Oh for sure. As much as I hate the son of a bitch Hopkins still has a great chance. That being said, Pavlik wins a lopsided decision. I changed my mind about the KO. He's not the one to stop Hopkins.
 

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TRIPLE OG HATER FOR LIFE
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I'm of the same opinion. I just think BH is to cagie and sneekie,to get stopped, early at least, who knows how the weight is going to affect pavlick ,while he might be stronger ? he also may be slower, I just think Bernard is too stuborn to get stopped, his inmense ego and pride will not allow it, Pavlick will walk away with the deceition and a wealth of knowledege provided by an old master....
 
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Oh for sure. As much as I hate the son of a bitch Hopkins still has a great chance. That being said, Pavlik wins a lopsided decision. I changed my mind about the KO. He's not the one to stop Hopkins.
Yeah, I think Hopkins will be in it for about 6 rounds and then Pavlik will pull away.
 

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Spike Spiegel
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Pavlik wins, via late stoppage. As the fight gets nearer, and I watched Calzaghe-Hopkins last night, and I realised just how much Hopkins gassed. Regardless, this takes nothing away from Hopkins legacy but I still think Hopkins is an A.T.G and will go down as somebody who ducks nobody.
 

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Hopkins looks like he's in better shape than his last fight. Not to say he wasn't in shape, but his face looks a whole lot slimmer than it did in the Cal fight. Looks like he's doing more running and adding less bulk. And as much as you guys say that Hopkins will lose by late round stoppage, I'm still waiting on that bet on whether or not Hopkins will be stopped or not. I need some easy points :D I'm still sticking with my guns....Hopkins by decision. I hope Pavlik will go after Hopkins and go for the KO, because this will make Hopkins land clean shots on Pav's mug at ease.
 

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Calvarez
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Hopkins looks like he's in better shape than his last fight. Not to say he wasn't in shape, but his face looks a whole lot slimmer than it did in the Cal fight. Looks like he's doing more running and adding less bulk. And as much as you guys say that Hopkins will lose by late round stoppage, I'm still waiting on that bet on whether or not Hopkins will be stopped or not. I need some easy points :D I'm still sticking with my guns....Hopkins by decision. I hope Pavlik will go after Hopkins and go for the KO, because this will make Hopkins land clean shots on Pav's mug at ease.
:laugh::laugh:
 

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Hopkins looks like he's in better shape than his last fight. Not to say he wasn't in shape, but his face looks a whole lot slimmer than it did in the Cal fight. Looks like he's doing more running and adding less bulk. And as much as you guys say that Hopkins will lose by late round stoppage, I'm still waiting on that bet on whether or not Hopkins will be stopped or not. I need some easy points :D I'm still sticking with my guns....Hopkins by decision. I hope Pavlik will go after Hopkins and go for the KO, because this will make Hopkins land clean shots on Pav's mug at ease.
Delusions of grandeur.
 
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